Some Random Thoughts on the future of Firearms, where we came from and going???

[keystonearms]

So i'm trolling through Gunbroker tonight, looking for a deal as well as observing what some of the other dealers are offering and I came across a listing and it literally made me sick to my stomach. Our market dictator Riverdodger has a 4" Bright Python listed for sale for a meager buy it now price of $3400. I thought to myself "Really, $3400? Is that the going price for a B Sts Python now-a-days?" Same seller, 2 1/2" Bright Python $5200. Caused me to start reflecting on the past few years and analize sellers (Myself Included), the values of our beloved Colts, and where are we possibly going? I started to run though the list of some of my favorite guns and compared 2010 prices vs. 2012...

6" Nickel Diamondback .22 2010=$2500
2012=$4000

2 1/2" Python 2010=$2500
2012=$5200 (nope, not dyslexic)

King Cobra 4" Sts 2010=$700
2012=$1050

I listed a 6" Nickel Diamondback on G.B. yesterday and when it came time to insert the buy it now price reserve price, I came up with a market value of $2500 for a gun without the box. Holy Cow! I am selling 6" Nick D-Backs in the box for $3850-$4000, is the Box really worth $1500?

You get the point, no need to continue but I would like to hear your thoughts and some of the comparisons that come to your mind. What has taken the biggest jump? I would like to get your Opinions on the SAA also as I feel they have stabilized a bit and I will get to that a bit later in my thoughts.

I recently posted in a thread that a fellow member started about my Magnum Carry that was on Gunbroker and someone said "Hey good job selling your gun, you have now made it impossible for some of us to obtain these guns, but congratulations". Got me thinking "Do I really dictate the Colt Market?" I felt like I kinda/sorta tuck in behind some of the others when it comes to pricing. So am I taking advantage of the trends? Absolutely. I hurried and listed that gun because the timing was right, others were on there were bid up to $1900 and I listed mine for $1750 to try to make a quick sale and did. Now I guess when the next guy lists his for sale, he will see this and put his at...You guessed it, $1850 and Bam! It happened! There is one currently listed for that price. Is it really that easy to change the value of a collectible on a national level? Geesh I thought I was a follower in this deal but I am starting to re-evaluate. I used to call the dealers the Big 3 but now BJS is gone (This answers your questions about weather or not it is illegal to buy and sell firearms without a license) and maybe I am climbing the ladder. Top 10?

So with all this said, what are your thoughts on ultimately what is going to happen to the gun buying/selling/collecting/usage trade? How can we possibly continue to push and push and push until the prices are where? Will we actually pay $10k for a Python in a few years? The average middle class man will have to start collecting what? Glocks? (Of course I have seen $8k Glocks on G.B.) Now I revert back to the SAA, what has it done over the past 2 years? They don't seem to have doubled in value IMHO, will the Snakes do the same? Is there a plateau in the future? Do 3 or 4 dealers push the market value up so high or is it the burning desire in the buyers that cause them to constantly bid it until they win it?

In 2003-2006 we sold THOUSANDS of Browning Auto 5s. We could not keep them in stock, we could name our price. As soon as they were listed they were gone, a good comparison would be like listing a NIB 2 1/2" Python for $1000 today. It put me on the map. In 2010, I can't make $1 on a Auto 5, everyone looks down their noses at them? What happened? Collectors bellies get full and the craze died? Supply far exceeded demand? Is it possible the Colt market will do the same? Seems impossible at this point in time but again, in 2005 I thought I would sell Brownings until the day I retired. Crazy huh? I own over 1000 Colts, should I start dumping them now while I still can?...Nah.

Fugate, chime in and put your dealer perspective on it all, A1A will certainly contribute as the voice of reason and Broknaxl put your humble opinion in the mix as well.


I'm feeling better now I vented a bit so I am off to gunbroker to see if I can alter the future of firearms! Thoughts?

[USMC Snakedriver]

I picked up a couple of Pythons several months ago. One was a NIB Grizzly, the other a nice 4 in blue with the box.i Bought what I liked. They didn't fill any particular nitch or need. They were just cool, interesting guns. I paid more for them than I wanted, but was offered plenty more than I was interesting in taking. They were mine now. For a while. The gaps in my collection are starting to show. Better find a few nickel guns and probably some type of another bear one as well. Just looking has turned into searching with a purpose. The closer I get to a "gap filler", the more interesting the hunt. I Try to not pay more than necessary to avoid buyer's remorse. But that usually happens anyway when my wife assesses the most recent purchase against her needs for clothes, trips and food. It's a balancing act. Guess I rambled all over the place, and this seems a good stopping point.

[Kid Sopris]

Greed...It's only worth what the market will pay...If we refuse to pay those outrageous prices, people will either keep what they have or drop the price...It's a Pyramid game of sorts, much like the housing market. Soooner or later somebody is going to get stuck; maybe it's happening now.

[MtnSpur]

Greed...It's only worth what the market will pay...If we refuse to pay those outrageous prices, people will either keep what they have or drop the price...It's a Pyramid game of sorts, much like the housing market. Soooner or later somebody is going to get stuck; maybe it's happening now.

Not a dealer, nor even play one on TV but the inevitable will happen. At some point the bubble will burst or at the very least reach it's maximum threshold for a specified period of time (maybe 3-5 years, maybe 10 years). A Python, not unique to 10,000 others made that same year, will stabilize (all things being equal NIB, LNIB). While we certainly enjoy our Colts they are not a necessity like food on the table or a roof over our heads. Nobody can predict the future but if history teaches anything a "price cap" for an item will eventually be realized unless that item is unique like a Rembrant painting. Offered IMHO.

[broknaxl]

I'm not a dealer, but have recently tried to buy some "Safe Queens' and investment grade guns. I do believe that sites such as GunBroker have pushed the prices higher. But if someone will pay it - Then thats what the market price is. I just hope I didn't jump in a little to late. The guy I bought from recently kept quoting prices from GunBroker, he even had print outs of auctions that were listed. But he fixated on one of the higher priced dealers - a guy called Prussia. I did buy an Anaconda 1st Ed and a Kodiak from the Gentleman and I think I got a fair price. But he had some that were just to high. I might go back and see if he'll work some on the prices, but the Wifes car is acting funny, my dryer broke and the washers not far behind!! So the question is "A happy Wife with clean clothes or more Colts"??? man what a dilemma.
Oh, I don't blame anyone who sells at a high price for driving up the market. There is a lot of these prices that are guys with fat wallets bidding against each other to see who has the fattest wallet !!

[porsche]

The boom bust cycle is alive and well. I think it may apply to Python's some day while other Colts may suffer, but to a lesser extreme.

[JudgeColt]

When I bought my farm in the early 1970s, corn was selling for $1.00 per bushel. Today, it is selling for over $6.00 per bushel. Pythons were a hard sell at $200. All guns have appreciated and the value of the dollar has fallen in value, so, in some respects, we are just treading water in a deeper pool. Guns have intrinsic value, in addition to their artistic value and investment value, so they are an attractive investment for many. Limited supply and demand by people looking for something "real" to hold are causing the current bubble.

The high-end collector car market went through a similar cycle in the 1990s, with collector Ferrari cars reaching into the several millions. With the dot.com bust, those values tumbled. They are now coming back because no more of those cars will ever be made. A lot more people have a few thousand dollars for a gun than have a few million for a car. That makes guns an affordable "bubble" investment for many. If the market falls by 25%, the gun still has its intrinsic value and the raw dollars are not really that significant so it is unlikely that such a drop in market value will cause others to dump large numbers of guns onto the market to further depress the market. Unlike a Rembrandt, guns will continue to have value apart from their artistic value. After all, you cannot shoot anything or anybody with a Rembrandt. There will be dips in the market, but, unless there is a total economic melt-down (which is not impossible), guns will continue to be a great investment. For that reason, I do not look for the "bubble" to burst with much real effect.

Investment tip: make sure you have ammunition for those guns, or they are not worth any more than a Rembrandt when the mongrel hoards are at the gate.

[ohiobuckeye]

I wanted to keep gasoline at 30 cents/gal and that didn't work out very well....

[keystonearms]

I sell so many firearms to Grandpas who are investing for their grandchildrens future, it is almost the same old song and dance when the phone rings. Really? Buy a Kodiak today for $4k, a Python for $3k, and and 20 years from now sell them off for what? $20k?

OhioBuck, you have a valid point but obviously Americans can afford a 10 fold price increase on gasoline (I still see lots of cars on my road) but what happens when you take many Americans out of the mix and they cannot afford the price increase on a $3k Python? This is grounds for the bubble to burst!

[pyshtrvr]

Just a comment.
There are three NEW gun stores (that I know of ), just recently in this area. I thought that was amazing.