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Anybody remember the phrase, “the Johnny Carson effect”?
Yes...the first great toilet paper panic from a joke he said.
 

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po18
I've kinda been going along with your wisdom but I'm thinking you may have entered the Twilight Zone. 😁
Vic
It's economic theory. Translating theory to common speech: supply and demand. We all know the what of shortages. Economics attempts to explain the why.
 

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Its not like ammo shortages never happened before. If memory serves me correct its the third time in 20yrs. I feel bad for the new shooters and those that can only afford to buy a box or two at a time. We all know shooting is not a cheap hobby. I know for a fact that ammo is manufactured on production line by caliber. The factory runs a production lot of a certain caliber and bullet weight and type and may not produce that same round for six months. Odd calibers and low demand ammo is produced once a year and that's it. There is only so much production capacity and production schedules are set at the beginning of the year. I sold ammo to law enforcement agencies for over 20 yrs. We always had problems delivering duty and ball ammo in a timely manner. Ammo makers filled military contracts first as they should. Next was large federal orders, then the commercial market and lastly the police market. The police market being the smallest percentage wise for ammo manufacturers. Try telling a Police Chief he was not getting his 50K 9mm ball ammo order for six months because the factory was filling commercial ammo orders first or that .380 silver tip was back ordered for a year. We advised agencies to order ammo a year in advance of qualifications. Sadly agency budgets would not always allow this.
 

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Ammo shortages are nothing new, ''sporting'' ammunition wasn't manufactured during WWII for civilian sales. What was on the shelves and in warehouses from mid 1942 was all there was until the war ended, and a while after.
 

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Its not like ammo shortages never happened before. If memory serves me correct its the third time in 20yrs. I feel bad for the new shooters and those that can only afford to buy a box or two at a time. We all know shooting is not a cheap hobby. I know for a fact that ammo is manufactured on production line by caliber. The factory runs a production lot of a certain caliber and bullet weight and type and may not produce that same round for six months. Odd calibers and low demand ammo is produced once a year and that's it. There is only so much production capacity and production schedules are set at the beginning of the year. I sold ammo to law enforcement agencies for over 20 yrs. We always had problems delivering duty and ball ammo in a timely manner. Ammo makers filled military contracts first as they should. Next was large federal orders, then the commercial market and lastly the police market. The police market being the smallest percentage wise for ammo manufacturers. Try telling a Police Chief he was not getting his 50K 9mm ball ammo order for six months because the factory was filling commercial ammo orders first or that .380 silver tip was back ordered for a year. We advised agencies to order ammo a year in advance of qualifications. Sadly agency budgets would not always allow this.
Yes the USG uses the DPAS system which covers not only the USG end item users of all types but also FMS sales that are DPAS rated. They will take precedence over any and all non rated orders no matter when they were placed. This means if you have a order in with say Winchester for a few million rounds that has a 2 year delivery window it can be superseded by a DPAS order placed today if the delivery date of the product cannot be met for both.
 

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This time caught me slightly off guard with a death in the family a year ago. My usual gauge to buy another 5K of primers locally when I get down to the last 1k worked for my large pistol primers and then I started reading about shortages and call my usual source and was told of the situation as I was down to 1K in both small pistol/rifle primers. The last 2 gun shows allowed me to buy small quantities of primers from dealers cleaning out estate sales. Some of the packaging is from the 60’s. Everything has fired as I test a few before loading.

During the winter months, I load for the upcoming season of cowboy action, sub gun matches, CMP and others. Looks like I am still good for a year if I shoot 44/45 and less 38/9mm if I load as needed now but I am going to shoot like I won’t run out and worry when I need to.

We will get through this and it should be sooner than later. We are not in 2 wars this time.
 

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It's funny if you own tickets to a concert or sports event and double the price to an individual its called scalping and you can be charged , fined and go to jail. If there is a run on gasoline and a store doubles the price, the attorney general for the state will normally go after those vendors. But in this case where individuals are cleaning off shelves of sporting goods stores and placing the same items online for 50% increase in price is not kosher in my book. If all the manufactures raise their price because of a shortage, I won't like it but I understand the supply and demand. But when a third party is doing it, unethical.
 

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Slightly off topic but related. I was in Costco the other day and they had 16 double stacked pallets of toilet paper. What was unusual was the location they were in and that the regular toilet paper location was full too. My wife thinks it’s pre planning for November 4th, and I stopped doubting women’s intuition years ago.
Update, went to Costco 2 days ago and they were down to 10 packages of toilet paper (24 rolls per package). Looks like my wife was right again.
 

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It's funny if you own tickets to a concert or sports event and double the price to an individual its called scalping and you can be charged , fined and go to jail. If there is a run on gasoline and a store doubles the price, the attorney general for the state will normally go after those vendors. But in this case where individuals are cleaning off shelves of sporting goods stores and placing the same items online for 50% increase in price is not kosher in my book. If all the manufactures raise their price because of a shortage, I won't like it but I understand the supply and demand. But when a third party is doing it, unethical.
I bet you really hate the stock market because it is the extreme example of 3rd parties buying selling a product. :)Just a FYI scalping of sporting tickets etc. in some areas is not legal only because of specific local and some state laws. Slippery slope when you regulate in a free and open market -- as I said earlier depends on whose ox is being gored.

Yes, gasoline for Example IF during a natural disaster/civil emergency pricing will be an issue as it should but not in the normal course of doing business. The run on ammo by silly Hoarders is not caused by a natural disaster/civil emergency and does not meet the definition of price gouging by any stretch, it is purely emotional. :) Remember when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market, they got burned? :)

"If all the manufactures raise their price because of a shortage, I won't like it but I understand the supply and demand. But when a third party is doing it, unethical." On the being ethical point you do not buy from the manufacturer in the vast majority of cases as most use "third parties" for the distribution/sales network of the product to deal with supply and demand fluctuation and it does cost you more! There is nothing that says a distributer cannot hold a specific product and sell it when it desires BECAUSE there are so many manufacturers world wide of ammunition/components that competition in the market sets the price. Make money if they sell at the right time lose if they do not.

The underlying issue is that to regulate the price and the amount of a product one can buy/sell or own in a free and open open market is something that was tried in other countries such as China and Russia and we know how that ended. This is short term supply and demand pure and simple.
 

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We all carp about price increases. Has any one of us ever paid extra for a "loss leader" item so that the store will not lose money on it? Have we refused to buy clearance items since they are selling for less than cost? Of course not! It is in our self interest to take the low price and run. The seller needs cash flow or storage/shelf space, so the items are reduced to move them. His or her self interest. That is how we generally decide: self interest.

If the armed mob is approaching and 9mm ammo is $100/box, do we argue over price? Do we wait for a clearance sale?

We are a curious breed.
 
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Discussion Starter #52
I sure don't see any emergency. Unfair pricing? If you don't think it is fair, why not buy some place else?

5000 Winchester pistol primers? Large or small. $750 delivered.
Yeah, Ok. My cost is 21.00 a 1000 delivered. I'm not into throwing money out the window.
 

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My first post on this forum guys but just wanted to add my .02 cents. The way I look at it is that a person can ask whatever they want and if someone wants to pay it, that’s their decision and at least they have the opportunity to buy. If the seller was charging a normal pre-panic price, the item wouldn’t even be there to buy. If the price is too high, don’t buy. BTW, I’m not selling anything so this isn’t a justification for me selling at market price.
 

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The owner of the Chevrolet dealer has no primers but just got 12 new Vettes in stock.
Is 50k or 100k of the primers they need too little or too much to swap for a new Corvette?

Just kidding! ;)
 

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Go to most "fancy" restaurants/supper clubs and look at 🦞 on the menu, it usually says, "MARKET PRICE". This is how I feel ammo and guns work as well, in the real world! People don't have a problem bidding on an early Python on gunbroker, that probably cost the original buyer a few hundred dollars, and it sells for several thousand! Is that fair? Is that price gouging or selling for a profit? Go to any sporting events concession stand, a bottle of water for 4 bucks? Really? But you're parched, so you pay it, Right? Pick your battles people! I have a bumper sticker on my truck that says " IF YOU DONT LIKE GUNS DONT BUY THEM" Same can be said for ammo prices, don't like the price? Don't buy it!! It's that simple. The comment by tcoz a few above is spot on 👍.
 

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I see some parallels from about 15 years ago and today. In the 1990’s, all military ammunition plants were closed except LC. It appeared to be enough for peacetime supply. Then when we got into 2 wars (2003-04) the govt. went to the commercial manufactures and most likely what ever price was quoted from them was approved. Us civilians were put on hold. This was also the time when more and more states approved CC laws. One of the most popular caliber was .380 for that purpose. Remember when .380 was no where to be had and if so it was $1 a round? So a new shooter with his .380 got all caught up in the frenzy and made sure they had a stash of ammo no matter what the cost. It happened then with .223 as well and possible bans.
So now today while not in 2 tradition wars, we do have many govt. agencies switching over 9mm, possible pending new restrictive regulations or bans from a new administration and once again millions of new gun owners buying what they can. Unfortunately the fact that Trump didn’t get re elected will probably delay when when ammo and components become available again but it will happen as it appears ammo companies are ramping up.

So to new shooters and new gun owners I would say, if it doesn’t bother you to pay .75-$1 around for .223, 9mm, 38 special, 40, 45 and 380 to build a stash only to find it later for almost 1/3 of that price, then do what makes you feel good. If you the type of shooter that has remorse for over paying for anything, you may want to put off casual shooting for now and hold on to what you have. Many of us that have been around for awhile have seen this and we’re not immune to frenzies of the past. Just my .02.
 
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